Lithuanian intelligence said on Thursday that Russia has sufficient resources to continue fighting in Ukraine for at least another two years, although it suggested that the army reform planned by the armed forces could extend the war by five years.
This was stated by Elegijs Paulavicius, head of the Lithuanian Second Research Department (AOTD), an intelligence agency of the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence. According to Paulavicius, the actual duration of the conflict will depend on the situation on the frontline.
In this sense, he pointed out that the high price of oil, the evasion of internationally imposed sanctions against Moscow and state investments will allow the “aggressor country” to continue its war actions in Ukraine. “Moscow is capable of analysing the lessons learned and increasing its combat capability,” he warned.
“Ukraine is Russia’s top priority right now. Considering the events of recent years and the support of actors such as North Korea, China and Iran, the conflict in Ukraine will continue,” he said, according to LRT television.
In addition, intelligence reports suggest that Belarusian services have increased their efforts to recruit Lithuanians crossing the border between the two countries. Should the war escalate into a long-term confrontation, he said, it should be approached “like a version of the Cold War, when there was a large movement of forces and large-scale military manoeuvres”.
