Geothermal could replace 42% of EU fossil power
New advances in deep-drilling technology could allow geothermal energy to replace a significant share of fossil fuel-based electricity across the European Union, even in countries without volcanic landscapes.
According to a new analysis by energy think tank Ember, up to 43 gigawatts (GW) of enhanced geothermal capacity could be developed across the EU at costs below €100 per megawatt-hour, comparable to coal and natural gas generation.
If deployed at scale, this capacity could produce around 301 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually, equivalent to roughly 42% of the EU’s coal- and gas-fired generation in 2025.
While geothermal currently represents only a small fraction of Europe’s power mix, researchers argue that technological progress is expanding its reach far beyond traditional hotspots such as Iceland.
Unlocking energy beyond volcanic zones
Conventional geothermal plants typically operate in regions with volcanic activity or tectonic boundaries. However, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) rely on drilling several kilometres into hot rock formations, injecting fluids to extract heat and generate electricity.
This approach broadens geothermal potential across much of continental Europe. Ember estimates that the continent’s “techno-economic potential” could reach 50GW, enough to supply electricity to approximately 30 million homes.
Hungary emerges as the country with the largest untapped resource, with nearly 28GW of potential capacity. Türkiye follows with around 6GW, while Poland, Germany and France each have about 4GW.
Because geothermal plants do not rely on fuel purchases, they are shielded from volatile commodity prices and rising carbon costs, strengthening their role as a stable source of low-carbon power.
Policy hurdles and global competition
Despite Europe’s early experimentation with geothermal technology in the 2000s, progress has been uneven. Lengthy permitting procedures and inconsistent national incentives have slowed large-scale deployment.
Meanwhile, projects in the United States and Canada are scaling up technologies first tested in Europe. North America’s planned geothermal pipeline now risks outpacing the EU’s.
Experts warn that if Europe fails to accelerate commercial roll-out, it could lose industrial leadership in a sector it helped pioneer.
Globally, geothermal could account for up to 15% of growth in electricity demand by 2050, according to the report. However, researchers stress that technical readiness must be matched by policy support and scalable financing to unlock its full potential.
As the EU seeks to decarbonise its energy system and cut reliance on imported fossil fuels, geothermal energy may offer a deeper and more resilient pathway toward energy security.
