23J results: a possible deadlock could force a re-run of the elections by Christmas
With 100% of the votes counted, the map of the Congress resulting from the general elections held on Sunday 23 July points to a scenario of deadlock with no candidate with a view to achieving an absolute majority. This could lead to a repetition of the elections, which should be held three and a half months after the first failed investiture, the date of which has not yet been set.
According to the electoral calendar, the new Congress should be constituted at ten o’clock in the morning on 17 August with the election of the person to preside over the House, who will be responsible for travelling to the Zarzuela Palace that same day to inform the King.
After being informed of the composition of Congress, it is foreseeable that the Head of State will convene the representatives of all the groups present in Congress in Zarzuela during the week of 21 August to decide who will be in charge of the Investiture Session.
Once the groups have been formed and the spokespersons appointed, plenary sessions can then be convened. Therefore, it is estimated that, at the earliest, the Investiture Debate could be held at the end of August or, much more likely, the first week of September.
No party achieves an absolute majority
To be sworn in as president, there are two ways: either an absolute majority in the first vote (176 MPs) or at least more votes in favour than against in the second, 48 hours later. And the blocs that have been established in these elections do not allow a priori a glimpse of either of the two options.
The date of this first investiture vote conditions the calendar in the event of a repeat election, since, in the event of a deadlock, the Cortes will be dissolved two months after that date in order to hold elections 47 days later.
A possible new election, around Christmas time
In other words, if there is a failed investiture debate at the beginning of September, a period of two months will begin to run for possible new attempts. This means that, if the deadlock remains at the beginning of October – as occurred with the failed investitures of Pedro Sánchez in March 2016 and July 2019 – and if no viable alternative is achieved in the following two months, the Cortes would have to be dissolved again in November and elections would have to be held 47 days later, i.e. at Christmas.
It was a 2016 electoral reform that reduced the deadlines and procedures in the event of a deadlocked investiture, shortening the electoral period from 54 to 47 days and limiting the current two-week campaign to eight days. This was done precisely to avoid elections on 25 December of that year, when they were due to take place.
